Friday’s Public Plays: Fading the Form Guide & Derby Hype

Key Takeaways: The Real Script for Jan 23

The Hamburg Derby: I am fading the public love for St. Pauli, backing HSV to treat this as their “cup final” and avoid defeat.
The Fatigue Factor: The public expects PSG to score for fun, but the “Real Script” points to a tired squad happy with a 1-0 win after their midweek UCL clash.
The Form Trap: Betting against Derby County at home seems crazy given their form, but in the Championship, a desperate team parking the bus (West Brom) is often the sharpest play.
Risk Profile: Total Risk: 8.12 Units | Potential Profit: 5.00 Units.

Here is the blog post for Friday, January 23, 2026. I noticed the reasoning for the Bastia/Montpellier match was accidentally copied from yesterday’s post, so I have updated it with logic consistent with your “Fade the Public” style (focusing on the difficulty of Corsican away days).

Blog Post Content

Title: Friday’s Public Plays: Fading the Form Guide & Derby Hype Category: Scripted Football Bets Date: January 23, 2026

Key Takeaways: The Real Script for Jan 23

The Hamburg Derby: I am fading the public love for St. Pauli, backing HSV to treat this as their “cup final” and avoid defeat.
The Fatigue Factor: The public expects PSG to score for fun, but the “Real Script” points to a tired squad happy with a 1-0 win after their midweek UCL clash.
The Form Trap: Betting against Derby County at home seems crazy given their form, but in the Championship, a desperate team parking the bus (West Brom) is often the sharpest play.
Risk Profile: Total Risk: 8.12 Units | Potential Profit: 5.00 Units.

Friday’s Football: Why the “Obvious” is Wrong

Welcome to the Scripted Football Bets category. Friday nights often trap the public into backing “narratives” rather than match realities. Whether it’s the intense Hamburg Derby or a PSG side expected to roll over a smaller opponent, the crowd loves a storyline.

Today, I am looking for the spots where those storylines disconnect from the data. Here is the breakdown for Friday, January 23, 2026.

The Slate: Top 5 Public Favorites – January 23, 2026

Amiens Vs Laval
SC Bastia Vs Montpellier
Derby County Vs West Brom
Auxerre Vs PSG
St. Pauli Vs HSV

Match Analysis: Fading the Narratives

1. Amiens Vs Laval

The Villain’s Move: Playing AGAINST Laval ML (Risking 1.84 units to win 1 unit)
The Public Logic: A classic “Form Guide” bet. The public sees Amiens has only one home win all season, while Laval has won two of their last three away games. To them, the momentum is clearly with the visitors.
The Real Script: Context matters more than simple W/L columns. Both teams are locked in a survival fight. When two desperate teams meet, the fear of losing often overrides the desire to win. I expect a cagey, risk-averse affair where Laval struggles to break down a stubborn host.

2. SC Bastia Vs Montpellier

The Villain’s Move: Playing AGAINST Montpellier ML (Risking 1.88 units to win 1 unit)
The Public Logic: Montpellier is the bigger name with the superior attack. The public looks at the squad lists and assumes the quality gap will be enough to secure a comfortable road victory.
The Real Script: Never underestimate a trip to Corsica. Bastia at the Stade Armand-Cesari is a different proposition entirely. The hostility of the home crowd often levels the playing field, making this a “trap game” for a Montpellier side that can be bullied out of their rhythm.

3. Derby County Vs West Brom

The Villain’s Move: Playing AGAINST Derby ML (Risking 1.74 units to win 1 unit)
The Public Logic: Derby is flying—back-to-back away wins and returning home buzzing with confidence. West Brom, on the other hand, has lost four in a row. The public sees two trains moving in opposite directions.
The Real Script: The Championship is the most volatile league in the world; “momentum” is often a mirage. West Brom’s poor run means they will likely abandon expansive play and “park the bus” to stop the rot. I’m fading the red-hot favorite in a league where any team can lose on any given day.

4. Auxerre Vs PSG

The Villain’s Move: Playing AGAINST PSG Over 1.5 Goals (Risking 0.46 units to win 1 unit)
The Public Logic: PSG has scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 8 matches, and Auxerre frequently concedes. The public expects a standard Mbappe-led blowout.
The Real Script: This is a classic “letdown spot.” PSG played a high-intensity match against Sporting just three days ago. Fatigue is real. They might not have the legs (or the motivation) to run up the score, potentially settling for a professional, energy-saving 1-0 win.

5. St. Pauli Vs HSV

The Villain’s Move: Playing AGAINST St. Pauli (Risking 2.2 units to win 1 unit)
The Public Logic: St. Pauli is seen as the “smart” money—undervalued and playing at home against an inconsistent HSV side. The public loves backing the “cool” underdog in a derby atmosphere.
The Real Script: Form goes out the window in the Hamburg Derby. For HSV, this is arguably the most important match of the season. The motivation to not lose to their bitter rivals will be immense. I expect HSV to fight for every inch, making the St. Pauli straight win a dangerous proposition.

Matchup	The Villain’s Move	Risk	Potential Win
Amiens Vs Laval	Against Laval ML	1.84 Units	1.00 Units
Bastia Vs Montpellier	Against Montpellier ML	1.88 Units	1.00 Units
Derby Vs West Brom	Against Derby ML	1.74 Units	1.00 Units
Auxerre Vs PSG	Against PSG Over 1.5 Goals	0.46 Units	1.00 Units
St. Pauli Vs HSV	Against St. Pauli ML	2.20 Units	1.00 Units
TOTAL		8.12 Units	5.00 Units